This document describes the replication files associated with:
Hirofumi Miwa. "Can Reshuffles Improve Government Popularity? Evidence from a 'Pooling the Polls' Analysis."

The following files are contained herein:
H[1-11]_XXX.csv (poll results)
JAGS_XXX.R (JAGS code for each analysis)
replication_code.R (R code for replication)
reshuffle_data.csv (covariates for reshuffles)
result_XXX.Rdata (MCMC samples of each analysis)

The author would like to thank Yukio Maeda for providing Jiji Press data before July 2013 and Kyodo News data before September 2015.

Instructions:
1. Create folder named "weekly_approval_rating" and put 11 csv files in this folder.
2. Put all files, including "weekly_approval_rating" folder, in your working directory.
3. Run replication_code.R.
If you want to skip the estimation process via MCMC to save time, please load result_XXX.Rdata files.

All data analyses in this article were carried out using R version 3.3.1, JAGS version 4.2.0, and the following R packages: runjags version 2.0.4-2, , coda package version 0.18-1, sandwich package version 2.3-4, lmtest package version 0.9-34, multiwayvcov package version 1.2.3, and dichromat package version 2.0-0.

If you have any questions or find any problems with the files, please feel free to contact the author.